The compounding rotation machine: catch names turning UP out of long bases (ready for a multi-year run), catch long winners breaking DOWN into multi-year declines (time to leave), and remember that every era crowns new leaders. Find, ride for years, exit on the break, find the next. Ten years of weekly closes per name.
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Ready to trend up
BASE → RISING candidates: long base, fresh turn - the door into the buy zone
The setup: a long tight base after a decline, volatility contracting, then a fresh cross above a 40-week average that is itself turning up, close to the base high. That is where multi-year advances are born. Confirm with the Top 20 board (is the business a compounder?) and enter with a stop below the base: a failed breakout is information, not a tragedy.
Topping risk
TOPPING → FALLING warnings: long winners breaking down - the sell zone
No top is guaranteed. These are distribution warnings on names that already had a big multi-year run: a long-held 40-week average breaking, its slope rolling over, lower highs, momentum negative. Historically such breaks precede multi-year downtrends often enough to act on, and fail often enough that acting means reducing and stopping out, never shorting with conviction. The audited record's overvalued calls hit only 42% on timing: the chart break is the better exit clock, and it is still only a probability.
Era rotation
Every bull run crowns new leaders
Why this panel exists: the leaders of each five-year era rarely lead the next one. Extrapolating last era's winners is the single most expensive habit in compounding. The system's loop is therefore: find the NEW names turning up (above), ride them for years, exit on the break (middle), and hunt again. Hold the compounders as long as the trend and the business both hold, and let this page tell you when either stops.