GRU 1

Valuation Engine

Story to Numbers to Value: act on the gap between value and price with a margin of safety. Educational, not advice.

Step 1

The story, as numbers (edit these)

Revenue and margins
Risk and interest
Balance sheet and action
Discipline rules baked in: terminal growth is capped at the risk-free rate; reinvestment is driven by growth ÷ ROIC; cost of capital fades to a mature level; tax fades to the marginal rate; and truncation risk is a separate dial: value = going concern × (1−p) + distress proceeds × p, never a WACC fudge. Edit the story, the value follows. Save keeps the company in this browser and publishes its Value÷Price score for GRU HQ.
Step 2

The value and the verdict

Example Co
·
Intrinsic value / share·
Going-concern value (pre-failure)·
Value range (low / high story)·
Current price·
Upside / margin of safety·
Value ÷ Price (x)·
Buy below / Sell above·
Sum PV of FCFF (Yr1-10)·
PV of terminal value·
Enterprise value·
Equity value·
Implied ROIC, Yr 10 (story check)·
Step 3

Sensitivity: value across cost of capital and growth

Humility: a valuation is a distribution, not a point. Green cells clear your buy band at that WACC/growth pair; red cells breach the sell band. If the buy case only survives in one corner, the margin of safety is an illusion. Low/high story above: growth ∓3pp, target margin ∓2pp, WACC ±1pp.
Step 4

The cash-flow engine (10-year projection)

How to read this: value comes from cash flows from existing assets, growth that is paid for by reinvestment, and the risk in the discount rate: with a mature terminal phase where growth ≤ risk-free and excess returns fade. If the story can't justify the inputs, change the story, not the math.